Chancellor John Healey will deliver his first Budget on Wednesday 28 October, and the speculation has already started. Some of it is worth your attention. Most of it isn’t yet, and knowing the difference matters more than reading every headline.
What’s already confirmed, Budget or not
A few changes are already law and will happen regardless of what’s announced on the day. From 6 April 2027, most unused pension funds and pension death benefits will be brought within a deceased person’s estate for inheritance tax purposes.
That materially changes the estate-planning role pensions have traditionally played, although some benefits, including certain death-in-service payments, remain outside the new rules.
From the same date, new property-income tax rates of 22%, 42% and 47% will apply in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, affecting landlords directly.
Separately, the government has committed to introducing a High Value Council Tax Surcharge from April 2028 on English residential properties worth £2 million or more. That policy has been announced, with detailed design work under way, so it’s considerably more concrete than Budget speculation, even if the finer print isn’t settled yet.
What’s speculation, and should be treated as such
Media and policy commentary has again turned to possible capital gains tax changes, although the Treasury has declined to comment on any of it ahead of the Budget.
Campaigners and commentators have also renewed calls for a wealth tax on very high-value assets, but that’s public debate, not confirmed government policy. The government has separately said it has no plans to replace its pension-IHT reforms with a flat-rate charge. The manifesto pledge not to raise the main rates of income tax, National Insurance or VAT for working people still stands, at least for now.
Until 28 October, none of the above is confirmed.
Acting solely on speculation can create irreversible tax or financial consequences, particularly if the anticipated change never happens. Recent Budgets have generated intense speculation about pension tax-free cash, and FCA figures show pension withdrawals rose sharply during 2024/25. That doesn’t mean every withdrawal was Budget-driven, but it shows how many people are making retirement decisions during a period of unusual uncertainty, often without checking the maths first.
What’s actually worth doing
Rather than guessing at headlines, this is a sensible moment to model a few scenarios with us. Have you used this year’s ISA and pension allowances? Would it be worth reviewing how any gains are positioned given the current (and future) rules? Do your gifting or estate plans need revisiting, given the pension IHT change already locked in for 2027?
None of that depends on what the Chancellor actually announces. It’s good housekeeping, simply brought forward while there’s still time to think it through properly.
Let’s map out a few scenarios together before Budget day, so you’re prepared whatever gets announced. Call 020 8366 4400 or email enquiries@cedarhfs.co.uk.
This article is for general information only and does not constitute financial or tax advice. Tax treatment depends on individual circumstances and may change. The value of investments can fall as well as rise, and you may get back less than you invest.